TRIBAL VOTING IS 'USELESS' IN GHANA
...Ethnic voting fits NPP more than NDC, Says Essamuah
Monday, 28th Sept. 2009
A political analyst, Mr. Colin Essamuah has argued that while voting along ethnic lines cannot be overlooked in Ghana, it is not the strongest determinant of the eventual election of the president.
In his view, what determines the winner of the presidential election in Ghana is what he describes as the "highly temperamental voters" in what has become known as the three swing regions- Western, Central and Greater Accra Regions and to lesser extent Brong Ahafo Region.
He therefore advised political parties to focus on galvanizing support in these regions as a means of enhancing their electoral fortunes in these regions.
Mr. Essamuah argues that the obsession about the voting pattern in Ashanti and Volta Regions should not be a source of worry, as it is not necessarily inimical to the country's democracy. "Ethnic voting does exist in our politics. Its prevalence, however, is not necessarily dangerous to our democracy".
He backs his assertions with statistical data. "In 2008, the total Ashanti Region voter population was approximately 2.3 million, and that for the Volta Region was 1.1 million. The massive support in these two regions for the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the National Democratic Congress (NDC) respectively, could never have produced victory for the parties involved."
It is a fallacy, he submits, to think that Ashanti vote was the guarantor of NPP vote in 1992, and victories in 2000 and 2004 elections and it is equally false to assert that the Volta vote ensured the victory of the NDC in 1992, 1996 and 2008. "These statements are not the same as saying that the two regions are not the political bases, or, in Ghanaian parlance, World Banks, of the two respective parties regions. Herein lies the source of the confusion which bedevils all discourse on the relevance of the ethnic factor in electoral politics in Ghana," he emphasized.
In a paper on "Elections and the Ethnic Politics in Ghana", presented at the Kofi Annan International Peacekeeping Training Centre (KAIPTC) as part of the Center's Reflections on national security, Mr. Essamuah argues that while the NPP believes that it has, or must have a lock on the Akan vote, wherever they may be found and likewise the NDC in as far as the Ewe vote is concerned, the two tribes represent 44% and 13% respectively of the population.
He pointed out that the Akans have never voted as one for any one particular political party apart from the Progress Party of Dr. Busia in 1969. Indeed in the August 29, 1969 election, the Progress Party secured 100% of the vote in three Akan regions of Ashanti, Brong-Ahafo and Central, and won overwhelmingly in the other two Akan regions, Eastern and Western Regions.
"Why the successor parties to the Progress Party cannot repeat the startling performance is now generally accepted to be due to the enforced absence of a true Nkrumaist party in the 1969 elections."
According to Mr. Essamuah, the 1969 aberration notwithstanding, Akans though culturally and linguistically similar, are not through and through the same in political outlook. The several variations in the various Akan ethnic subgroups can be subsumed under one feature, namely the differing attitudes and beliefs as they relate to traditional, pre-modern governance institution such as chieftaincy.
This feature, he observes, broadly divides the Akan into two distinct political halves when it comes to voting in national elections; the Forest Akan and the Coastal Akan. "Even here, the NPP has not, and cannot expect, to maintain an overwhelming support base in the Forest Akan-speaking areas of the country. If that were so, the Western and Brong-Ahafo Regions would not now be seen as swing regions in elections since 1992".
With regard to the Ewes, he argues that they have voted only three times since 1951 for an Ewe candidate: Komla Gbedemah in 1969 and President Rawlings in 1992 and 1996. "Compare this with the voting record of the NPP and its predecessor parties since 1956 and the pattern of ethnically-induced voting fits the NPP more than the NDC. Indeed in 1960, the Ewes voted en masse for Dr. Danquah, the United Party candidate for president in the plebiscite which ushered in republican status for Ghana."
During discussions, an ex- National Security Co-ordinator, Mr. K.B. Quantson observed that "ethnicity is like imperialism; it's very dangerous, once it gets to a place it never gets away" and thus it should be discouraged.
One Naval officer was of the view that personnel of the Armed Forces vote the same way as the civilian population. "Our votes are guided by the issues of expectations, poverty and underdevelopment. If a government is voted out of power it means that it did not meet the expectations of the people."
Author: Ebenezer Hanson